The Felt Industry - shaky future or brighter times?

[Spatterdash]

There's a lot o' talk out there about felt, and all of it is cautious.

I figured it was time to get the Lounge's views on this.

On the one hand, we have China buying up all the raw beaver, which is hurting US and Portugese felters, who are the best in the business. Rumor has it one prominent US felter has shut the equipment down for the time being until backstock can be moved out the door. If custom hatters are becoming the primary market for felters like this, what kind of felt can we expect in the next few years? Is the future looking grim for quality felt?

Or...

It's been 19 years since Jones went swingin' across the silver screen and now "the Man with the Hat" is back, and his hatmakers will be featured on the DVD.
Interest in hats in general seems to be spiking. Stingy brims and fedoras are beginning to appear, and Indiana may be a serious jolt to the arm of the business. Serious fans can find their way here or to COW...
and Stetson is experimenting with Vintage models?

So, all things considered, what do you think is in the near future for felt?

 

[MrFusion]

I think that we will see an increase in hat wearing, at least for a bit as the fashion industry has apparently been endorsing hats. That is a good thing.
However, those new hat wearers are probably more price sensitive than quality sensitive so I can see more hats made in China to satisfy those people. That in turn could hurt US and Portugese felters who will probably not be able to compete, price wise, with the felters in China.
If that happens, I would guess that a custom hat using US or Portugese felt, will cost more. Worse, if China causes those felters to close their doors, we could be stuck with inferior felt.

 

[Art Fawcett]

That's no rumor

but rather a fact Dash. Winchester is temporarily shut down till the shelves start clearing and as of yesterday we ( custom hatters) got hit with another increase in price. I've held the line for over a year but with 15% increase over last year that's gonna have to change. That said, this is also delaying the delivery of my featherweight felts for the summer as they are an "add on" to their process rather than a target felt. ( he makes them special for me and does them along with his normal dying schedule..hope that makes sense).

Future? geeze, that's a big question. I think the new IJ will pick up interest but as Fusion states mostly at the entry level. The bright side is that those often turn to something better after wearing hats for a while. I do think that the increasing competition for the fur from China and other growing economies will play a part in price increases as it does with all segments but since I am a devout capitalist I don't see that as a bad thing, just a problem that has to be dealt with.

I think there will ALWAYS be a place for quality makers so I personally don't lose much sleep over it, but I see it more as a problem for the production companies that compete for that low to middle market. For them, unless they can find something that will give the public incentive to buy, the future isn't that bright. We DO see the "big boys" making changes as noted in other threads such as Stetson "Nostalgia" ( I hate that name) so maybe it isn't as bad as it seems. Time will tell

 

[Brad Bowers]

Ouch! 15% is quite the inflationary jump.

Yes, it will be interesting to see what happens to the hat market over the coming years. I think we'll see the same shakeouts that are happening in other industries.

Brad

 

[surely]

yup