Allied Math Nerds Calculate Axis Tank Production

[Wiseguy A]

Here is a story about mathematical deduction that I love, mainly because it is said to be true, and because it had an impact on the outcome of the second world war. It is the story of how a simple statistical formula successfully estimated the number of tanks the enemy was producing, at a time when this could not be directly observed by the allied spy network.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1824525,00.html

 

[J.B.Saxon]

That´s funny and absolutely simple. lol

 

[Clyde R.]

Great story.

My favorite story of estimating the numbers of the enemy was the US estimate of Japanese forces on Tarawa (actually Betio island on Tarawa atoll.)

Basically the intelligence guys looked at the number of latrine facilities and used a formula to predict how many enemy troops were on the island. The number arrived at was very close to the actual number, about 4500. The link provided is about Tarawa, and the story of the latrine estimate is found if you scroll down a bit to the section titled, "The Intelligence Effort."

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USMC/III/USMC-III-II-1.html

 

[Story]

Basically the intelligence guys looked at the number of latrine facilities and used a formula to predict how many enemy troops were on the island. The number arrived at was very close to the actual number, about 4500.

:eusa_clap
Man, that's great - like the NVA counting the number of helicopters and multiplying by 8.