Do you think there could be a second Great Depression?

Discussion in 'The Observation Bar' started by PrettySquareGal, Feb 28, 2007.

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  1. HungaryTom

    HungaryTom One Too Many

    Messages:
    1,204
    Location:
    Hungary
    The earth will have 8 billion by 2020 and 9 billion by 2050. The classic model of capitalism is designed for growth and expansion. Just like the USA grew in the 19th and 20th. From some 5 million in 1776 to 300+ million nowadays.
    From emptiness till a fully
    occupied world (see this constant examples of how many earths more are needed to sutain US, EU, Japan, second world, third world living standards). I read that the equilibrum of what the earth can sustain, and the amount of pollution it can process vs. how much humanity in total consumes and produces was coming apart already in the mid 1970s. And the gap increases ever since.

    Wiseguys can tell that there could be enough food if only it was distributed evenly but it is never distriuted evenly and never will be.

    Huge infrastructures for those populations had to be created out of the blue.
    Now this model is not more valid in a world with so many people in it.
    Only Antarctica, deserts high mountains are empty the rest is inhabited and cultivated.
    Homo sapiens had the first 100.000 years spent in family clans of 25-50. Since 10.000 BC with the Agricultural revolution this has changed and for the first 8 millenia the agriculturers lived in villages of a few hundred. BTW the max. of people whom you can really 'know'. Human psychology.
    Rome was the first million city, some 2000 years ago. It collapsed and this 1 million Hurdle was achieved 1800 years later again by London. At the time when shortly after world wars were breaking out, as humanity has filled the earth with 1.8 to 2 billion people. And the redistriution armwrestling was done in two rounds. With the birth of the A and H bombs to coold down eventual hotheads lusting for global wars. The third cold world war saw the increase of the population from 2,2 billion in 1945 to some 5 billion in 1989. The 'End of History' period Fukuyama saw another 2 billion added. So now this growth model has come to an end and the elite must find out some ways to put people in the mental existential state that enables us to bear battery hen or eusociate insects (bees, thermites) conditions that basically totally contradict human nature. Well we are adaptable, but still, living in a thermite state is not exactly your dream. The economic model of this full world is still elaborated, but we are now in the era where quantity reigns. The economic ecological, spiritual crisis are sure signs of it.
    In short: there will be a bunch of crises and wars as this new world is coming into being. Maybe some future 'Pax Romana' can be found maybe not. 'Pax Americana' as it is now might be replaced with some multipolar model, but the need for consensus among heads will be there. Otherwise humanity is toast. Life not. Life as such has survived much worse events than a nuclear war, see Deep impact, Planet of the Apes, Outbreak, Zombie holocaust, King Kong etc. Life will continue. With or without us is the question- be or not to be :D?
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2012
  2. vitanola

    vitanola I'll Lock Up

    Messages:
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    Location:
    Gopher Prairie, MI
    The suit alleges that Countrywide and BOA entirely eliminated underwriting for the loans in what they called their "High Speed Swim Lane" program which underwriting was still required by Fannie and Freddie regulations, but faked the necessary documents to "prove" that the loand were properly underwritten when the time came to sell the loans to the F & F.

    The proper word for actions such as these is fraud. The government is in fact alleging fraud in this case it is the basis of the suit. The complaint avers that these "HSSL" loans were also sold on private markets until the private markets froze up after private buyers of mortgage securities finally became aware of the fraud in this market. These privately securitized mortgages are only tangentially covered in the suit because the government has not standing with regards to them. There are doubtless phalanxes of attorneys carefully watching this case, IN the unlikely event hat the complaint is sustained, watch for the fireworks as the private entities who believe that they were defrauded come for their pound of flesh.

    "Yeah, suing a bank over Fanny and Freddie loans being sub-prime loans is the most stupid thing I've ever heard- Freddie and Fannie loans were designed to be sub-prime by the government."

    Absolutely untrue. A lie, a pointed lie, in fact. "Subprine" originally referred to lonas which DID NOT MEET FANNIE AND FREDDIE REQUIREMENTS, and which would have to be either held or sold on the private market. After the coming of sophisticated securitisation algorithms there proved to be a strong, profitable market for these "Subprime" loans, and they turned out to be more profitable for the originators than the conforming loans, and began to drive the conforming loans out of the market.

    It was with considerable trepidation that the GSE's entered the subprime market, only in 2005 and 2006.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/20/opinion/nocera-an-inconvenient-truth.html
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2012
  3. LizzieMaine

    LizzieMaine Bartender

    If only.
     
  4. Atticus Finch

    Atticus Finch Call Me a Cab

    Messages:
    2,717
    Location:
    Coastal North Carolina, USA
    During the twelve or so months following the time when this thread was started...in 2007...yes, I was very concerned that we would soon experience something like the Great Depression. Large banks were failing at the rate of two or three a month. We were losing 500,000 to 700,000 jobs a month. The DOW was falling and ultimately lost almost half of its pre-2008 value. There were two wars esculating in the Milddle East. Home foreclosures were rampant and steadily increasing. Two of the three domestic automobile manufacturors were facing bankruptcy. Yes...the list of economic woes from at era is long, indeed...

    But, no, nowadays I'm not as concerned about a looming depression.

    AF
     
  5. Boodles

    Boodles A-List Customer

    Messages:
    425
    Location:
    Charlotte, NC
    Indeed Barrister.

    I hope the rising water blown up by Sandy and surrounds ceased at the base of your swing.
     
  6. Big Bertie

    Big Bertie Familiar Face

    Messages:
    79
    Location:
    Northampton, England
    I don't think it's over yet, certainly not in Europe. Greece, Spain and Portugal are in a grave situation and there is the potential to draw in Italy, possibly even France and Germany. So far there is no sign of a coherent economic strategy emerging.
     
  7. Very good points and they could well drag the US in with it. We have a false sense of security here but there are still jobs being lost---especially out here. We lose thousands every time some computer company contracts or goes bankrupt. There is also Boeing talking about huge labor cuts after the election. Just great.
     
  8. As long as leaders insist on borrowing billions to keep spending trillions even right in the middle of a recession seems to insure that a greater fall must be looming. Common sense should lead one to realize that extreme over-spending is never a solution..but only a direct path to greater misery.
     
  9. Soylant Green is people...
     
  10. GoldenEraFan

    GoldenEraFan One Too Many

    Messages:
    1,164
    Location:
    Brooklyn, New York
    This might sound far-fetched as I am no export on politics and foreign affairs, but I always thought that solution to this world wide economic problem would be for the entire world to agree to wipe the debt slate clean and start over.
     
  11. If you or I ran our personal finances or businesses like the government, we'd either be bankrupt or in prison for fraud or embezzlement. :p
     
  12. Get ready for the double dip recesssion.
     
  13. Well some are still in high gear to do everything they can to get us there come hell or high water...and quite successfully selling it as only the bumpy road to Utopia...
     
  14. And that will crash land us further down than we are now. I wish more people could understand economics.....
     
  15. Gregg Axley

    Gregg Axley I'll Lock Up

    Messages:
    5,125
    Location:
    Tennessee
    More did...50 years ago.
    When we stopped teaching (at home and at school) "if you spend more than you make, eventually you'll go broke", people stopped understanding economics. This teaching was further ingrained by working, such as a summer job, etc.
    I've watched my nephew and niece get this concept by teaching, and by learning from work. By their mid teens they understood economics. And now, one of them is a Financial Planner in the poorer section of town, to try and pass on his knowledge to those that need it, so they can eventually leave the life they have, and move futher up. So far, he's been quite successful. :)
     
  16. If students could just add, subtract, multiply and divide nowadays then they could understand better---especially that subtraction part. :p
     
  17. As soon as a kid turns 18...here come the credit cards in the mail.
     
  18. Why you would think he was a politician.
     
  19. As Granddad Brunswick used to say: Two plus two equals five when you're lending but only three when you're borrowing. :p
     
  20. Well, there is that whole interest thing. :p
     
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